Calculator · October 2026 gas prices

What does a leak cost, and is it worth fixing?

Enter the facility’s dimensions and the size of the leak: we show the heat loss in kWh, gas and forints for one heating season, the estimated fix cost, the payback and the five-year balance – and whether a survey is worth ordering at all. The calculation runs in your browser; nothing is sent anywhere.

  • Model-based estimate ±30–50%
  • Net of VAT
  • Same model as the worked examples

Leak estimator

Estimate

Pick a type, adjust the numbers and read the result.

Facility type

The type loads the example facility’s thermal data and defect lists (see Worked examples). Every value can be changed.

Gas price

Net, marginal, all-in: 40.4 Ft/kWh (range 32.1–56.9), 9 October 2026.

Leak level

3 dock seals faulty, 2 sectional doors with worn seals, 35 m of failed wall-panel joint, 35 m² wet roof insulation, 45 m eaves / slab-edge thermal-bridge run.

Custom defect list (advanced)

Enter the quantities found by thermography or inspection. Choose “Custom” under “Leak level” for this list to count.

Jump to the result ↓

Result

Identical to the Worked examples page (same model, same inputs). Worked examples →

Cost in one heating season

HUF 620,000

price range HUF 490–880k · with weather, efficiency and defect size (P10–P90): HUF 0.4–1.1M

Heat
11,000 kWh
Gas
1,500 m³
Share of the heating bill
7.6%
fault-free baseline: HUF 7.5M
Mean heat loss
2.9 kW
250 W/K
One-off fix
HUF 2,700,000
range HUF 1.4–5.2M
Payback (fix only)
52 mo
on the forward curve 67 mo · best–worst 19–178
5-year net (savings − fix)
+HUF 430k
flat price · curve: −HUF 260k

Is a survey worth ordering?

Probably not worth it

The survey price alone exceeds what these defects save over five years. Probably not worth it for energy savings; other reasons (fabric protection, comfort, reliability) may still apply.

Our survey price (net)
HUF 489,000 list price · 3D package – 3D heat map + engineering analysis
Survey + fix payback
61 mo · curve 81
5-year net with survey
−HUF 62k · curve −HUF 750k

The verdict assumes such defects exist – which you cannot know before a survey. The survey price is the cost of finding out.

Five years: when does the balance reach zero?

  • Flat gas price (40.4 Ft/kWh)
  • Forward curve (falling)
  • Quick wins (A) only, flat price
Cumulative net position over 5 yearsCumulative savings minus the one-off fix cost, by year. Where a line crosses zero the fix has paid back.−3−2−1012HUF M012345year≈ 52 moFlat gas price (40.4 Ft/kWh) · year 1: −HUF 2.1MFlat gas price (40.4 Ft/kWh) · year 2: −HUF 1.4MFlat gas price (40.4 Ft/kWh) · year 3: −HUF 820kFlat gas price (40.4 Ft/kWh) · year 4: −HUF 190kFlat gas price (40.4 Ft/kWh) · year 5: +HUF 430kForward curve (falling) · year 1: −HUF 2.1MForward curve (falling) · year 2: −HUF 1.5MForward curve (falling) · year 3: −HUF 1.1MForward curve (falling) · year 4: −HUF 680kForward curve (falling) · year 5: −HUF 260kQuick wins (A) only, flat price · year 1: +HUF 110kQuick wins (A) only, flat price · year 2: +HUF 380kQuick wins (A) only, flat price · year 3: +HUF 650kQuick wins (A) only, flat price · year 4: +HUF 920kQuick wins (A) only, flat price · year 5: +HUF 1.2M
Table: cumulative net position
yearFlat gas price (40.4 Ft/kWh)Forward curve (falling)Quick wins (A) only, flat price
0−HUF 2.7M−HUF 2.7M−HUF 160k
1−HUF 2.1M−HUF 2.1M+HUF 110k
2−HUF 1.4M−HUF 1.5M+HUF 380k
3−HUF 820k−HUF 1.1M+HUF 650k
4−HUF 190k−HUF 680k+HUF 920k
5+HUF 430k−HUF 260k+HUF 1.2M
Payback≈ 52 mono payback within 5 years≈ 7 mo

The heating bill: fault-free baseline and leak

  • Fault-free heating bill
  • Cost of the leak
Fault-free heating bill and cost of the leakHorizontal stacked bar at the central gas price; the orange part is the leak.MediumHUF 8.2M / seasonFault-free heating bill: HUF 7.5MCost of the leak: HUF 620kleak: +HUF 620k = 7.6% of the bill
Table: heating bill
CaseFault-free baselineLeakTotalLeak share
MediumHUF 7.5MHUF 620kHUF 8.2M7.6%

Quick wins only (A items)

1/8 items
HUF 270,000/season
One-off fix
HUF 160,000 (HUF 88–280k)
Payback (fix only)
7 mo
5-year net with survey
+HUF 700k
What was calculated (defect list)
FindingFt/seasonFixPayback
Dock 1: both side pads compressed (5.6 m × 30 mm)16,000300,000223 moC · slow
Dock 2: both side pads compressed (5.6 m × 30 mm)16,000300,000223 moC · slow
Dock 3: head curtain missing (2.6 m × 80 mm)21,000300,000171 moC · slow
Sectional door 1: worn perimeter seals (17 m × 8 mm)43,00090,00025 moB · medium
Sectional door 2: worn perimeter seals (17 m × 8 mm)43,00090,00025 moB · medium
Wall-panel joints open (35 m × 2 mm)270,000160,0007 moA · quick
Wet roof insulation (35 m²)190,000770,00050 moB · medium
Eaves / base thermal-bridge run (45 m)28,000680,000292 moC · slow
Request a quote for this facility

Only the facility type and floor area are passed to the quote form – no personal data.

Assumptions
  • Gas price: 40.4 Ft per invoice kWh (≈ 425 Ft/m³), range 32.1–56.9 Ft/kWh (9 October 2026). Source: TTF quotes + MVM Basic fees; the contract mark-up is an assumption.
  • Heating degree-days: 2,161 Kd for an indoor 16.0 °C with a 12 °C balance temperature (Nyíregyháza, ERA5, 11 seasons, average season).
  • Heating efficiency (net calorific basis): 0.80 (range 0.72–0.88); assumption.
  • Heated time fraction: 0.85 (night / weekend set-back), as in the example facility.
  • Defect parameters: U(defect) 2.5 W/m²K (range 1.5–3.5); thermal bridge ψ 0.35 W/mK; wind 2.5 m/s × ΔCp 0.4; orifice equation, series leakage network.
  • Fix costs: indicative, quote-based assumptions (low / central / high per item).
  • Survey price: from our price list, net.
  • Door traffic and the fault-free baseline follow the example facility (the number of doors is not scaled).
  • Uncertainty: typically ±30–50% per item; “P10–P90” comes from the 81 corner combinations of price, efficiency, weather and defect size.

The full method →

Estimate – not a guarantee. Figures are model-based and actual values may differ.

How to read it

What the result means – and what it does not

Price range and uncertainty

“Cost in one heating season” uses the central gas price; the “price range” shows the low and high gas price (32.1–56.9 Ft/kWh). “P10–P90” is wider: besides the price it covers the extremes of efficiency, weather and defect size. A single item is typically accurate to ±30–50%.

Flat price and forward curve

The five-year calculation uses two paths: today’s price held flat, and the falling curve of the futures market. A futures price is not a forecast; the two values are the upper and lower bound. With your own gas price the curve is scaled proportionally.

What the calculator cannot do

It does not know where or how large the defects in your facility are: it assumes that the defects you enter exist. A thermal survey is how to find out. Fix prices are indicative and not exact without a quote. Savings occur only if the repair is carried out.

Want to know what is true in your building?

The calculator works with assumptions. A thermal survey shows where the real defects are and how large.